Not a bad day yesterday in the fictional world where I bet on sports. 3 out of 4 ain't bad. I liked Butler to possibly win outright, and they did. I also was big on West Virginia playing without their point guard (See Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory). Teams just seem to step up when one of their key players go down. I'm not sure they're better off in the long run, but for one game, I like the way they play. I thought for sure I was losing the Kansas State-Xavier game, but a lack of buzzer beaters and the game going to double overtime sure helped. Add in a couple of free throws and a couple of bricked shots at the end and Kansas State managed to pull off a 5 point victory.
The only game I missed was Cornell-Kentucky, and I was really torn on this one. I probably wouldn't have even bet it because I couldn't decide. Part of me thought Cornell would hold their own and part of me said Kentucky would run away with it. In the end, I went with the thought that Cornell could hold their own, and I was wrong. The speed, athleticism, and rebounding on Kentucky really gave Cornell problems on both ends of the court. On offense, Cornell struggled to find open jump shots. Against Wisconsin and Temple, they had open shots and they hit them. Against Kentucky, they had to work too hard to get open. When they finally did get open, their jump shots just were not falling. Kentucky managed to get long rebounds and run out quickly, leading to many fast break type chances for the Wildcats.
All of that being said, Kentucky on offense was not that good last night. They shot 44% from the field, but only 2/12 from three point range. They also only went 16/26 from the free throw line, something that could hurt in a closer game. DeMarcus Cousins had a great game, when he was in the game, but foul trouble kept him from playing more than 25 minutes. John Wall distributed the ball well (8 assists) and rebounded well (7 rebounds), but I'm still waiting for the game where he takes over on the offensive end more from a scoring stand point. Kentucky will have to play better against West Virginia, or they might be going home before the Final Four.
Also of note before getting into tonight's games, Butler is one win away from playing in the Final Four in their home town. Not only is Butler's Hinkle Fieldhouse only 6 miles from Lucas Oil Stadium (the home of this year's Final Four), but Butler is technically the host of this year's Final Four as well. In a state where basketball is king (even with the Colts being so good lately), the entire area would get behind Butler if they were to make it. The only thing better than that would be to see Purdue and Butler make it to Indy, but we'll get to that in a bit.
Midwest Regional
#2 Ohio State -4.5 over #6 Tennessee
I'm never really sure what to think of Thad Matta as a head coach. I'm also never sure what to think about Bruce Pearl as a head coach. It makes this Ohio State-Tennessee match-up rather intriguing. I've never wanted to give either of these coaches any credit as on the court coaches. They're both great recruiters. There's no denying that. This year, Pearl has gotten more from his team than anyone expected. That's especially true after he kicked two of his best players off the team after they faced some significant legal problems. Matta has effectively played a 6 man rotation for the second half of the year. Guards Jon Diebler, William Buford, David Lighty, and Evan Turner will play almost 40 minutes every game. Center Dallas Lauderdale will split time with Kyle Madsen, but Madsen only sees the court when Lauderdale is in foul trouble or needs a short break. With four days rest, it's hard to bet against Ohio State. They are 29-7 overall, but three of those loses came with National Player of the Year Evan Turner out with a broken back. They remind me a little of Kentucky in that everyone on the court can score. The four guards are athletic scorers. Even Diebler, your typical outside shooter has proven he can drive to the hoop if people close out on him too quickly. While I really like Scotty Hopson and Wayne Chism from Tennessee and feel those two players have been underrated all year, it's just not enough to compete with an explosive Ohio State team.
#5 Michigan State -1.0 over #9 Northern Iowa
When a basketball line is less than 2, you're pretty much picking the winner. The points really don't matter. Northern Iowa is a team that is much better than the NCAA committee gave them credit for this year. They are 30-4 this year. The problem is, they really don't play anyone with a lot of talent in their conference and some of their out of conference opponents had disappointing years. They destroyed Iowa. They beat Iowa State. They beat fellow NCAA tournament team Sienna by 17 and Old Dominion by 9. Jordan Eglseder looks like he might be 35 years old, but his low post game is solid. Senior forward Adam Koch was the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year this year and has a solid inside/outside game with some ability to slash through defenses. On top of those two, no Northern Iowa discussion is complete without discussing guard Ali Farokmanesh (is it sad that I am able to spell that without looking it up?). Ali hit what was maybe the greatest shot of this year's tournament. Up 1 with 35 seconds left against Kansas, with the ball in his hands and a 2 on 1 advantage, when most players would pull the ball out, get fouled, and hope to make some free throws to get up 3, Ali would think nothing of it. As the Kansas defender backed off to defend the basket, Ali fired a three pointer from the wing that had every Northern Iowa fan screaming, "NO!!!!", followed by it hitting nothing but net and everyone jumping for joy. The kid has no fear and wants to ball in his hands at crunch time. This is the same kid that hit the game winning shot against UNLV two days earlier as well. On top of the talent of those three, Northern Iowa plays very, very solid defense and does not turn the ball over often. In some ways, they remind me a lot of Wisconsin with an offense that will shoot the ball a little earlier than Wisconsin.
On the other side of the court will be Michigan State and Tom Izzo. Here's another team ripe for the Ewing Theory. During the Spartans buzzer beater victory over a very good Maryland team, star point guard Kalin Lucas tore his achillies tendon when he landed awkwardly after a running jumper. Lucas will not play basketball for the next four-to-six months. In steps sophomore guard Korie Lucious. Not only did Lucious have thirteen points and only two turnovers in 27 minutes, he also made the game winning three at the buzzer to help the Spartans advance. He'll need to be at his best for the Spartans to defeat the talented team from Northern Iowa. That being said, you could say the same thing about the rest of the Spartans. Raymar Morgan, often described as a head case due to his up and down performances, has been playing his best basketball the last three to four weeks. That will have to continue. Draymond Green, the heart and soul of this Spartan team, will have to keep doing the little things. He'll have to rebound the ball and find the open man. If he can consistently hit his 15-18 foot jump shot, it opens the court for the rest of the team to slash to the hoop and make plays. Green doesn't have to score 20 points for us to win, but he does have to rebound and take care of the ball. Durrell Summers, Tom Izzo's pet project for the last month, will need to continue to shoot the ball well. His offense against Maryland helped MSU jump out to a big lead and his three point shooting made Maryland extend their defense. With Chris Allen having a strained arch in his foot, Summers will need to continue his solid play.
In the end, I think the Spartans have enough talent and enough heart to beat a very good Northern Iowa team in what will probably be a low scoring game. The only hope is that the officials let both teams play because you'd hate to see a low scoring game decided by bench players because the stars for each team are on the bench with foul trouble. MSU will have to keep playing their best basketball of the season, but Tom Izzo will have his team ready and will throw some new wrinkles at UNI and pull out the victory, setting up a match-up with Big Ten foe Ohio State on Sunday.
South Regional
#3 Baylor -4.5 over #10 St. Mary's
This is a game I just can't pick. If I were betting, I'd stay away from this one. I think Baylor is the better team, but I've been very impressed with St. Mary's in this tournament. They've been hot going back to before the WCC tournament (which they won in a convincing manner). No one has seen much of this Baylor team. They're long They're explosive. They'll be playing in their home state in front of a crowd that will be behind them. Never underestimate St. Mary's though. The Gaels have a deadly inside-outside combination in Omar "Broadway O" Sahman (one of only two players in college basketball to average 20+ points and 10+ rebounds per game this year) and guard Mickey McConnell. McConnell has no fear from anywhere on the floor and Sahman is a smart big man that knows how to score in the post. Sahman should be able to use his strength and size to get rebounds and points and I wouldn't be surprised to see his big tournament continue.
Baylor is lead by Junior guard LaceDarius Dunn. Dunn, a deadly three point shooter and slasher, is averaging almost 20 points per game and seems to play his best on the biggest stage. Transfer C Epke Udoh has flashed offensive talent this year that no one saw when he was at Michigan early in his career. This Baylor offense is talented and will find ways to outscore St. Mary's. Udoh won't stop Sahman, but his long arms will force him to take some contested shots and in the end, Baylor will find a way to win this game with some late free throws putting them over the 4.5 point margin of victory.
#4 Purdue +8.5 over #1 Duke
Let me begin by saying I don't think Purdue will beat Duke. I just feel the game will be closer than the experts think. Purdue is not the same team without Robbie Hummel, but they still have talent. JaJuan Johnson is a very talented big man with range out to the three point. Guard E'Twaun Moore is maybe the most overlooked guard in the Big Ten. Guard Chris Kramer is the difference maker for Purdue now. He plays tough defense (Was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year) and has turned up his offensive output since Hummel went down. Purdue will need his defense and toughness against a very good Duke team that doesn't get as much credit as they deserve.
Listen, everyone loves to hate Duke. It's easy to do. Part of the reason everyone hates them though is the fact that they win. A lot. They're 31-5 heading into tonight's game. Guard Jon Scheyer is having his best year at Duke. Forward Kyle Singler is a dynamic player that can score from anywhere on the court. Guard Nolan Smith is living up to expectations after struggling his first two years at Duke (at least compared to the expectations he came in with his freshman year). The key for Duke though might be the play of senior center Brian Zoubek. Zoubek is a senior who finally seems to have found his place on this team. A legit 7-1 center, Zoubek struggled on both ends of the court for his first three years at Duke, never averaging more than 11 mintues per game. Now he's playing almost 20 minutes per game, playing solid defense and grabbing 7.5 rebounds per game. When you through in twin freshmen Miles and Mason Plumlee, the Duke front court has been a pleasant surprise. Everyone knew the guards and Singler could score, the question would be if they could find someone to rebound and play interior defense and those questions have been answered.
Overall, Purdue just plays too tough on both ends of the court to let Duke run away with this game. The only way Duke wins by more than 8.5 is if Purdue shoots less than 35% from the field or Duke makes numerous free throws down the stretch to push a close game to a 10 point margin at the buzzer.
In Closing
So, if I gambling were legal, I like Purdue +8.5, Baylor -4.5, Ohio State -4.5, and MSU -1.0. There's a good chance that MSU line moves to a a pick 'em by the tip, so I might as well be betting on them to win outright. I don't mind giving the point though.
Also to consider, if you think Duke is overrated, the Purdue money line bet looks juicy tonight. Purdue is +350 (bet $100 to win $350) to win outright. Do I think Purdue wins tonight? No. Do I think they'd win 1/3 if they played three times? Yes. That's the type of action you're looking for in a money line bet, so it might not be a bad play tonight. The other money lines aren't that enticing, but part of me is intrigued by St. Mary's at +220. Until tomorrow, I'm off to actually get some real work done.
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