If I bet it: NCAA Tournament Style

If you're like me, your NCAA bracket is completely busted with Kansas losing to Northern Iowa. If not that, Villanova losing hurts. So, with no chance in any bracket pool, it's time to look at betting actual games. Quickly, as I'm writing this minutes before the first set of games, here are my thoughts on the first day of sweet sixteen games. I'll post my thoughts on the Friday games either later tonight or Friday morning sometime. (Writer's note, picks were made before games started this evening, but a phone call kept me from posting them before 8 PM)

West Regional

#5 Butler +6.5 over #1 Syracuse

Maybe it's just because I've watched a lot of Butler this year or because I haven't watched much of Syracuse, but I have a feeling Butler might win this game outright. I don't think there's any chance of Syracuse blowing them out. Syracuse is known for their 2-3 zone. I've seen good shooting teams outshoot the zone. I've also seen games where Syracuse just seems lost defensively. On top of that, they're playing without their starting center who is the anchor of the baseline of that zone. Butler has two star players in Forward Matt Howard and Forward Gordon Hayward and I think they'll cause problems for Syracuse. I'm taking Butler and the points.

#2 Kansas State -4.5 over #6 Xavier

Kansas State's coach might be crazy. Just watch. Frank Martin is a lunatic, but his team seems to respond to his style of coaching. I also think they'll find a way to keep Xavier star Jordan Crawford under control. There's no one in the tournament that has helped their NBA draft stock more than Crawford in the first two rounds. He went from possibly a second round pick or maybe being undrafted to being a possible first round pick with his play in this year's tournament. He's also the same guy that dunked on Lebron James in a summer league last year. Again, as well as he's played, I think this is the round where he comes back to earth and the rest of his teammates aren't there to pick up the slack. Kansas State wins and covers.

East Regional

#2 West Virginia -4.5 over #11 Washington

This was a tough call. Washington has underachieved all year and the Pac-10 got no respect all year from the national media. They're better than an 11 seed and they proved it in the first round. They like to play up-tempo and push the ball as much as possible. They would be thrilled to play a game with a final score of 85-80 or higher. On top of that, West Virginia guard "Truck" Bryant broke his foot in practice this week, so the Mountaineers will be without their 4th leading scorer and point guard. This game screams "win one for the gipper." More often than not, after a major injury, teams will go out and play very well without their teammate to try and win one for the injured player. Someone will pick up the slack for Bryant. I'm sure not what this means for the rest of the tournament, but for one game, I feel WVU will find a way to win. That all being said, watch out for Washington F Quincy Pondexter, a very underrated player on the West Coast, and G Isaiah Thomas (not relation to the former Piston great). The two of them can put points on the board in a hurry and will likely keep Washington in the game late into the second half.

#12 Cornell +8.5 over #1 Kentucky

Another game I'm torn about. Cornell has been unbelievable in this tournament. They beat a very underrated Temple team in the first round and completely destroyed a Wisconsin team that was maybe slightly overrated. The shoot the ball well (understatement of the century) and play very solid defense. They also don't turn the ball over often and they won't be scared facing a highly talented Kentucky team. For Kentucky to win this game, they'll need to get off to a good start. If they get behind to Cornell early, it'll be interesting to see how Freshman of the Year John Wall and the other young Wildcats respond. Cornell has proven they can score a lot of points, so Kentucky shouldn't be able to out run them and outscore them. They'll have to play defense and rebound well. In the end, I feel the Wildcats will win this game, but I'm not convinced they'll win by more than 8.


So, those are my picks for tonight. I put them out there with one big thought. I hate betting on basketball. So many little things happen at the end of games that can change things. Guys will miss some free throws. Guys will throw in 3 point jumpers at the buzzer. Coaches will empty their bench with a big lead to try and let some of the guys that don't play very often get in the stat sheet. All of these can change the outcome of a game from a betting stand-point. While it may not seem like a big deal if you miss free throws and only win by 5 instead of 7, sometimes it can be all the difference when the line was -5.5. If you're going to truly bet basketball, the moneyline is often a better bet because there, the point spread doesn't matter and you're purely picking winners (though, the odds and payouts change and I'll probably get into that with Friday's picks).