Big Ten Basketball

So I realize it's been a long time since I wrote anything. With any chance, I still have a follower or two. I guess that's the life during the busy season for accountants. The last thing I've wanted to do at home at night is write. Fortunately, I'm sitting at a client, waiting for a meeting to start and I have some free time to write this. We'll see how much I finish, it may be a two part posting.


Basketball season is winding to a close. By Thursday of this week, every conference will have started their conference tournament. The smaller conferences have mostly completed their tournaments and the big conferences will have started. Special congratulations should go to Wofford College, a school with a total enrollment of 1,400 students. By winning the Southern Conference tournament, Wofford, lead by Noah Dahlman (brother of MSU senior Isaiah Dahlman), will be in the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history. Other teams of note from small conferences include Sienna (third straight appearance in the NCAA), Oakland University (2nd ever appearance), and Murray State (the only team in the NCAA with 30 wins so far this season). We'll see how these teams fair come the big tournament.

Speaking of big conference tournaments, the Big Ten Tournament begins Thursday afternoon. The 2010 tournament marks the 8th year in a row for a father-son outing for my dad and I. While in college, spring break was always the same week as the big ten tournament. My junior year, I suggested to my dad that he and I go to the tournament. One, it was a chance to spend time with my day. Two, it was a lot of decent quality basketball. Three, it was in Indianapolis, one of my favorite cities to visit. That first year turned into lots of basketball, lots of beer, and a great four days with Dad. After that first year, we decided it should become a tradition. We went the next three years while I finished grad school. When I started my career, I had it written into my contract that I would receive three days of vacation in March even though it was the busiest time of year for accountants. I swear, I think I look forward to the tournament more than I look forward to any holiday. It's better than the start of football season. It's better than Super Bowl Sunday. Words can't describe how much Dad and I look forward to this weekend. Now the only hope is his Badgers and my Spartans will have a good showing this weekend.

On that note, my thoughts on the Big Ten regular season (in reverse order of seeding for the Big Ten Tournament).

The Big Ten: A Season of Adversity

Penn State
The Nittany Lions were the Big Ten's youngest team this year, with no scholarship seniors on the team. Junior Talor Battle was the heart and soul for this team (even if his cocky attitude rubs a lot of people the wrong way). He's one of the few players in the Big Ten that can completely take over a game and carry a team on his back (as seen in his 32 point showing against Virginia, Penn State's best win of the year). Unfortunately, Battle misses having a good second and third option, and sometimes presses too much to make things happen. Penn State draws a tough Minnesota team in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament and I think it'll be a quick end to a painful season in Happy Valley that will probably see head coach Ed DeChellis looking for a new job.

Indiana
If Penn State is the youngest team in the conference, Tom Crean's Hoosiers are not far behind. The top three scorers were freshman or sophomores. Senior Devan Dumas is the only senior who sees significant playing time, and he's 7th on the team in minutes played. The Hoosiers were significantly hurt when leading scorer (and Big Ten freshman of the year candidate) Maurice Creek went down with a season ending surgery 12 games into the season. Creek averaged 16 points while only seeing the court for 24 minutes per game. No one expected the Hoosiers to be in the top of the Big Ten, but losing Creek really hurt their chances to be very competitive. That being said, Tom Crean is building a foundation for a team that could be very, very good in the next few years. Unfortunately, they're just outclassed and will probably struggle in an opening match-up with Northwestern on Thursday afternoon.

Iowa
The Hawkeyes might be the most non-descript team in the Big Ten. Led by guards Matt Gatens and Anthony Tucker and forward Jared Cole, the Hawkeyes have struggled to consistently find a rhythm on offense. Todd Lickliter is in his third year at Iowa and his team has struggled to improve in his first three years. Some recruiting battles have been lost, some players transferred, and some injuries have hurt the Hawkeyes, but Lickliter will need to show improvement soon, or his time with the Hawkeyes may be short. Lickliter is a proven winner, he just needs to translate his winning ways of the past into Big Ten victories. They face Michigan early Thursday afternoon in what should be the most competitive of the first round Big Ten Tournament games.

Michigan
The Wolverines are lead by Junior Manny Harris and Senior DeShawn Sims. Harris and Sims were supposed to carry this team to the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive year. Unfortunately, Head Coach John Beilein has an offensive system based on the ability for his guards to shoot the basketball well from long range. While Harris and Sims find ways to score points, the rest of the team has struggled this season. The Wolverines have not shot the ball well and have struggled to score points when their outside shots aren't falling. Zack Novak and Stu Douglass were supposed to be significant outside shooting threats, but neither shot better than 31% from three-point range this season. Also, Beilein's zone defense has struggled to keep other team's shooters at bay, while giving up way too many offensive rebounds. While I expect them to get by Iowa on Thursday, their match-up with Ohio State on Friday could put an ugly end to an ugly season.

Northwestern
Oh what a year it should have been for the Wildcats. Kevin Coble was going into his senior year and was a possible first team all-big ten candidate. Guard Michael Thompson was supposed to handle the point guard position. Guard Jeremy Nash was going to be the defensive stopper. Forward John Shurna was supposed to come into his sophomore year and be a more consistent scorer than his freshman year (when he'd have a 18 point game followed by a 5 point game). Then the walls came crashing down for the Wildcats as Coble suffered an injury that was going to keep him out for the entire year. But something strange happened. The Wildcats opened the season 12-3, including victories over Notre Dame and Iowa State. The talk around the country was this was the year the Wildcats would make the NCAA tournament for the first time. Shurna was on a run, averaging over 20 points a game and replacing Coble as the top scoring option for the Wildcats. Then the walls came crashing down and the Wildcats struggled to put together more than two victories in a row and finished the Big Ten season a disappointing 7-11 (19-12 overall). The Wildcats will probably need to win the Big Ten tournament to see the NCAA tournament, a path that would probably include victories over Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, and Ohio State or Wisconsin. A tough task for a team with a fairly short bench.

Minnesota
The Golden Gophers play a tough style of basketball that is symbolic of their coach. Tubby Smith is a no-nonsense type coach who finds a way to get the most out of his players year in and year out. The season got off to a tough start as heralded freshman Royce White was suspended for the year and eventually left the team completely. Yet, Lawrence Westbrook, Blake Hoffarber, and Ralph Sampson III managed to carry this team to a 18-12 record and a 9-9 record in the Big Ten. They probably could have been even better, but point guard Al Nolen was suspended halfway through the season and the Gophers struggled at times. While I expect them to beat Penn State Thursday, a tough match-up with Michigan State awaits and will probably end the Big Ten Tournament for the Golden Gophers.

Illinois
The Illini live and die by the play of point guard Demetri McCamey. McCamey lead the Big Ten in assists at almost 7 per game and also averaged 15 points per game. McCamey is the type of scoring point guard that can completely control a game on both ends of the court and make life miserable for his opponents. This Illini team should have been better this year, but forward Mike Davis really struggled to improve on his breakout year last season. Davis still averaged 11 points and 8 rebounds a game, but more was expected on the offensive end from the talented forward. The Illini come into the Big Ten Tournament on a three game losing streak and probably need to beat Wisconsin on Friday to get into the NCAA tournament. If they fail to win Friday, they'll probably find themselves on the outside looking in.

Wisconsin
The most over-achieving team in the Big Ten this season. Many selected Wisconsin to finish in the lower half of the Big Ten this season. Some pre-season polls had them as low as 8th. But, as Bo Ryan has proven in the past, his system works with just about anyone in it. They play tough defense. They run a very deliberate style of offense that forces opponents to play tough defense for 30 seconds almost every possession. They also have talented players that seem to really step up when they're presented with an opportunity. This season, those players were Jon Leuer and Trevon Hughes. Hughes showed he's one of the better point guards in the Big Ten on both ends of the court. His defense and timely shot making skills are two of the reasons the Badgers are locks to make the NCAA tournament. The other big reason is the breakout year from forward Jon Leuer. Leuer was the Badgers best offensive option for the first half of the year. Unfortunately, he went down in the middle of January with a wrist injury that held him out for 9 games. While the Badgers struggled at times with him out, Leuer is now back and healthy, and the Badgers are on a roll, winning five of their last six. The latest victory was a statement game at Illinois where the Badgers avenged their earlier season loss to the Illini. Those two teams play for the third time on Friday, a game I see the Badgers winning and effectively knocking the Illini out of the running for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Michigan State
This was supposed to be the Spartans conference title to lose. The team returned a lot of talent from the team that made a run to the National Championship game last year. Unfortunately, a lot of people didn't understand the importance of what they lost from last year. The loss of Goran Suton and Travis Walton was easy to see early this season. Izzo's Spartans spent the early part of the season looking for an identity. Their half-court offense struggled at times while trying to break in freshman centers Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman. This team is best when they're on the running and playing an up-tempo game. Forward Draymond Green has proven he's an instant energy guy for the Spartans, coming off the bench to finish first on the team in rebounding and third in scoring. Point guard Kalin Lucas, last season's Big Ten player of the year has struggled at times this season and a mid-season ankle injury kept him out of a two games and hindered him for two more where he wasn't playing at full-strength. But all of that being said, the Spartans managed to finish in a three-way tie for first in the Big Ten and are showing life heading into the post-season. Senior Raymar Morgan is playing his best basketball of the season. The Spartans will need his mental game to match his abilities for a chance at a big run in the post season. A match-up with Penn State or Minnesota awaits the Spartans on Friday, with possibly a game against Purdue on Saturday. If they play well, the Spartans are probably the favorite to reach the finals of the Big Ten Tournament from their half of the bracket.

Purdue
The season that should have been. That's what Purdue fans will probably be saying for a while. Purdue was rolling through the season. They were once ranked as high as number 3 in the country and were looking like a sure-fire Big Ten Champion and number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. And then, in a second, those dreams came crashing down as star forward Robbie Hummel went down with a season ending knee injury in a late season game against Minnesota. That was followed by a home loss to the Michigan State Spartans and allowed Ohio State and MSU to creep back into the title race. But, that isn't to say the cupboard is bare for the Boilermakers. Guard E'Twaun Moore leads them in scoring while center JuJuan Johnson leads the way in the paint at both ends of the court, scoring over 14 points a game while averaging two blocks per game. The Boilermakers have enough talent to make a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA tournament, but the loss of their leader Hummel will hurt this team in the long run. He was the guy on the team you could always count on for a key basket, a key rebound, or a tough loose ball. Someone else will have to step up for this team. While you can count on Moore, Johnson, and guard Keaton Grant to make some big shots, there is no one that can replace what Hummel brings to this team.

Ohio State
The Buckeyes start with all-everything guard Evan Turner. If you haven't seen this team play, you might think it starts and stops with Turner. What can you say, Turner is the best player in the Big Ten, and in my opinion, the best player in the country. He's a scorer (19.5 ppg), a rebounder (9.4 rpg), a distributor (5.8 apg) and a solid defender (1.8 steals per game). On top of that he is shooting over 53%. But, this OSU team isn't just Turner. Guards Jon Diebler (outside shooting threat), David Lighty (tough defender, all-around offensive player), William Buford (possibly the best pure scorer on the team behind Turner), and forward Dallas Lauderdale (imposing defender, rebounder, and dirty work tough guy) combine to help this team play at such a high level. It really makes you wonder what this team could have done if Turner hadn't missed six games with a broken back early this year. Yep, that's right, he fell and broke his back. 6 games later, he was back doing his thing. My only fear for them going into the Big Ten Tournament is that coach Thad Matta has done little or nothing to develop his bench. 4 players on this team average over 34 minutes per game. It makes you wonder how they'll do playing 3 games in 3 days (or even back to back games on consecutive days).


Big Ten Tournament Predictions

Opening Round
Iowa over Michigan: Call it a hunch. 60-53

Northwestern over Indiana: Gutty Hoosiers aren't enough, even in front of home crowd. 65-59

Minnesota over Penn State: Tubby keeps Battle under wrap. 68-54

Quarterfinals
OSU over Iowa: Hawkeyes don't stand a chance against a much more talented team. 75-55

Wisconsin over Illinois: Badgers too tough on both ends and slow down the game. 62-53

Purdue over Northwestern: Jon Shurna does his best Robbie Hummel impression, but it's not enough. Purdue escapes a close game 68-62

MSU over Minnesota: Spartans, playing without guard Chris Allen, struggle early, but turn on the jets in the second half. 74-62

Semifinals

OSU over Wisconsin: The OSU athletes prove too much for the Badgers. Bo's team struggles to get much going on offense and Turner and Company do just enough to pull out the close victory. 65-54

MSU over Purdue: The Spartans destroy the Boilers on the glass and second chance points get them a hard fought victory of a Boilermaker team trying to prove they're more than just Robbie Hummel. Draymond Green and Raymar Morgan both have a double-double and the Spartans head to the finals 66-60

Big Ten Championship

OSU over MSU. In a game between the two most athletic teams in the Big Ten, OSU's athletes are too tough for MSU. The Spartans have no answer for Evan Turner. The Spartans shoot the ball well though and keep it close against the worn out Buckeyes playing their third game in three days. In a close game, OSU wins 74-70. (It pains me to say this, but it's how I feel right now. I hope I'm wrong and MSU walks away with the title, but I just don't feel it happening. We'll see how they play on Friday and I may change my mind).