If I bet it

(Writer's note: I wrote this last night, waited until this morning to post it while waiting for my client to be ready for our meeting. I was going to edit it, but I decided just to post it unedited and the way I first wrote it. I can tell I was tired and not really thinking about formatting when I wrote this...must be busy season for us accountants)

This Sunday is the Super Bowl. It's also called "Get Even Sunday," as all people that bet on professional football during the course of the year see this as the last chance to get even on the year if they had a losing year. Of course, book makers love this fact as most people who bet on sports aren't very good at it and the more that they're down, the more they'll be on the Super Bowl to get even. What makes them expect to do any better in a match-up of two of the best teams when they couldn't get things right the rest of the year?

Sports betting experts are lucky to get 2 out of every 3 bets right. If an expert gets 66% right for a year they're a genius. The average fan is lucky to get 1/3 right. Those that do best look at match-ups and pick the games each week where they see the best odds and the best match-up. When it comes to the Super Bowl, there's only one game to bet on (if you choose to bet it). To give betters more options, most odds makers will offer proposition or "prop" bets. These prop bets are based on different activities that happen during the course of the game. These range from who will win the MVP, to which player (or team) will score first, to things related to two different games (such as which will be greater, total points scored by the Saints vs. total points and rebounds by an NBA player playing the same day as the Super Bowl)

This year, there are some rather interesting prop bets out there (For those that aren't aware of sports betting, - numbers mean you have to bet that much to win 100 and + numbers mean you have to bet 100 to win that much.):

Prop Bets
First team to score will win the game: Yes (-180) No (+150)

Will New Orleans ever have a lead: Yes (-220) No (+180)

Team to score the longest touchdown: New Orleans (+110) Indianapolis (-140)

Team to commit more penalties: New Orleans (-140) Indianpolis (+110)

Either team will make a field goal in the first quarter: Yes (-105) No (-115)

Will there be a special teams touchdown: Yes (+140) No (-170)

Which team will win the coin toss: Either team (-115)

MVP Odds
Peyton Manning 5-7
Drew Brees 3-1
Pierre Thomas 11-1
Joseph Addai 11-1
Reggie Wayne 11-1
Marques Colston 14-1
Dallas Clark 15-1
Reggie Bush 15-1
Pierre Garcon 20-1
Austin Collie 25-1
Jeremy Shockey 35-1
Darren Sharper 40-1

My general thoughts on betting on the MVP is you have to decide who is going to win the game before you ever bet on the MVP. If you think the Colts are going to win, there's no reason to bet on any member of the Saints for MVP (unless you're hedging your bet, and then I think you're just chicken and second guessing your original bet, but I'm an all or nothing kind of better...you know, if gambling were legal)

Other Prop Bets
I won't bother to post them here, but you can bet on so many things. You can bet on if the first play is a run or pass. You can bet on how long each running back's first carry will go for. You can bet on total yards for each team, each player, each quarter, each half, the whole game. It's unreal the number of things that odds makers will set to try and make money besides just the outcome of the game.

If I Bet It

So, if gambling were legal, here's who I like this weekend:
- The Saints +5.5 (line has moved around anywhere from +4.5 to +6.5, I just saw online a line at +5.5 so I'd take that)
- Over 56.5
- Drew Brees for MVP getting 3-1 odds
- Yes a team will make a field goal in the first half (-105)
- There will not be a defensive touchdown (-170)
- Points scored by the Colts: Under 31.5 (-115)
- Points scored by the Saints: Over 25.5 (-125)

Like most sports betters, I'll probably be wrong, but at least it'll make the game interesting when I don't really have a rooting interest either way.