We're 19 games into a 31 game regular season schedule for Michigan State basketball. So far, other than the loss to Florida in Atlantic City, they've done just about what everyone expected. They beat a good Gonzaga team at home and lost to a decent North Carolina team on the road and lost to a very, very good Texas team on the road. They're 16-3 and I just don't see them as a "great" team.
In the Big Ten and in most of their non-conference victories, they were just a much stronger, more athletic team than their opponents. In the two games they played against teams that could match their athleticism and skill, they struggled (@Texas and @ North Carolina). In both those games, they showed glimpses of their talent level. They ran up and down with Carolina in the second half to make what could have been a blow out turn into just a six point loss. Against Texas they actually held an 8 point lead in the first half at one point. In that game, they just let things slip out of control in the final 8 minutes of the game as Texas ran away with things while MSU couldn't buy a basket. Unfortunately, it showed one of MSU's biggest weaknesses: Their half-court execution is not nearly as strong as it has been in year's past. Against teams that play tough half-court defense, they often struggle to get a decent shot. Luckily, they rebound well enough and get enough second chances that they're able to downplay their struggles most of the time. Texas and UNC didn't give them as many second chances.
There are many good things to say about this team. Draymond Green might be the smartest player in the Big Ten and he does all the little things it takes to win ball games. Delvon Roe has proved he's learned to shoot free throws and is looking to be more of an offensive threat. Kalin Lucas still has the ability to take over a game, even though his jump shot has been disappointing at times this season. Raymar Morgan is playing better defense than he ever has before. On top of that, he appears to be doing more little things that don't show up in the box score (solid defense, good help on screens, diving for loose balls, etc).
This team has all the talent in the world, but they can't play games like they did against Iowa last night. In the second half, they had a 19 point lead and appeared to be rolling through the competition. A turnover here, a turnover there, a missed lay-up here, a empty possession there, and all of a sudden Iowa had it down to 8. Then the Hawkeyes hit a couple of ridiculous shots, and it's a 3 point game. At this point, MSU had the ball and seemed completely lost. If it wasn't for Korie Lucious attacking the basket for a lay-up, I'm not sure MSU would have gotten a decent shot attempt in that possession. As coach Izzo and a couple of players have said, this team's stars seem to lack a sense of urgency at times. It's almost like their killer instinct is missing. They often fail to turn a 19 point lead into a 30 point lead and run away with things. More often, they let a 19 point lead get down to a 10 point lead, and then they're just giving the other team an opportunity to make a game out of it.
The true test begins now. MSU plays 6 of their next 8 games on the road. They're 6-0 in the Big Ten. Every other team in the conference has at least 2 losses, with biggest threats Purdue and Ohio State both sitting with 3 losses. Wisconsin isn't far behind the Spartans at 5-2, but they're playing without Jon Leuer (possibly their best overall player) for the rest of the regular season, if not longer. The tough road for MSU is as follows, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan, Northwestern at home, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois, and Purdue at home. There is not a game in those 6 that will not test the Spartans. Tubby Smith always has his teams ready to play against Izzo's teams. Michigan, while up and down this year, will for sure be ready for their biggest basketball rival. They can't sleep on Northwestern (even after beating them by 20 earlier in the year) as the Wildcats won at Breslin just last year. Wisconsin and Illinois are considered two of the tougher road games in the league. It all leads up to a showdown with Purdue, a team that was ranked as high as fourth in the country at one point this year. If MSU can come through this stretch at 9-3 or 10-2, I'd be ecstatic.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
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