If Gambling were legal....

...this is who I like this weekend. After what should have been an undefeated weekend (I should know better than to put any confidence in Ron Zook and Illinois), I'm feeling more confident in my Big Ten picks going into the last weekend of the regular season. Only five Big Ten games this week as Illinois takes a week off before their two final non-conference games of the season. (Side note: Who schedules two non-conference games AFTER the Big Ten season? While there's something to be said for having more time off during the early part of the season, this was an Illini team that struggled to find an identity all season and probably could have used a couple more non-conference games early in the season) Also, the Big Ten's bowl teams became clearer last week as two teams became bowl eligible (Minnesota and Michigan State) and three teams became eliminated from bowl contention (Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois). Michigan is the only team still fighting for bowl eligibility as they sit at 5-6, looking to get that 6th win and avoid missing the bowl season for the second year in a row. Without further ado, here are my picks (home team in CAPS):

#10 Ohio State -11.5 over MICHIGAN 12:00 ET ABC

The Michigan defense continues to be awful. The Ohio State offense is still struggling to consistently get their offense rolling. This week Pat Forde (of ESPN fame) called Jim Tressel the "Most conservative coach in America." He also noted that Tressel has no problem with that, and why would he? Tressel is 92-21 in his first 113 games at Ohio State. Tressel is 7-1 against Michigan, a team that beat Ohio State so often during the John Cooper era that it cost him his job. Hidden behind his conservative offensive game plan and his sweater vest apparel is the fact that his defense is outstanding. This is a game where Tressel will be able to let his offense loosen up while his defense shine. The Michigan defense has allowed at least 35 points in their last four games and the streak continues as OSU wins 38-17.

#13 IOWA -10 over Minnesota 12:00 ET ESPN

Last week Iowa proved it can still hold their own, even without QB Ricky Stanzi. It was a tough overtime loss at Ohio State for the Hawkeyes who battled back in the second half to force the game into overtime. As predicted here last week, Iowa back-up QB James Vandenberg looked much more comfortable after having a full week of practice with the first string Iowa offense. The Iowa offense was also aided by the return of running back Adam Robinson who missed the previous two games due to injury. On the other hand, Minnesota struggled last week with lowly South Dakota State from the Missouri Valley Conference, needing a field goal with 2 minutes left in the game to eek out a victory. This is a rivalry game for both teams and the Hawkeyes are fighting to stay in line for a premier bowl game this season that started so promising (9-0) before losing their last two games. In this case, the Hawkeye defense will keep the Golden Gopher offense under control while the offense will get enough big plays from Vandenberg, Robinson, and receivers Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos as Iowa rolls to victory 31-13.

#16 Wisconsin -7 over NORTHWESTERN 3:30 ET Big Ten Network

This has been a decent year for the Wildcats as they prepare for their second bowl game in as many years. Pat Fitzgerald is building a winning program and has a 26-22 record as a head coach since he took over under less than ideal circumstances after the unexpected death of head coach Randy Walker. That being said, their upset victory over Iowa two weeks ago was greatly aided by the injury to Iowa starting QB Ricky Stanzi. Northwestern plays solid, yet unspectacular football. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is having a much better than expected season and is fighting for a New Year's Day bowl game. With a game remaining at Hawaii after this week, Wisconsin is looking toward a 10-2 season with a couple more victories. Wisconsin's offense has gotten a big lift from freshman running back Montee Ball as Wisconsin now has a back-up to give Big Ten leading rusher John Clay a break from time to time. Without a doubt Clay is still the leader of the Badgers offense, but the somewhat reduced work load the last couple weeks has allowed him to be fresher in the second half and the Badgers have worn down opposing defenses. QB Scott Tolzien continued his surprising performance this year with a big game against Michigan last week (240 yards, 4 TD's, 197.33 passer rating). Wisconsin just has too much talent and too much to play for in this game, Badgers win 31-20.

INDIANA +3 over Purdue 3:30 ET Big Ten Network

Indiana's offense has been competitive all season long. Purdue has been the epitome of the up and down team all year. They looked like world beaters taking out Ohio State this year. Their offense showed up and looked outstanding against Oregon and Michigan State, but the defense struggled in the two losses. This is a rivalry game as the two Indiana teams compete for possession of the Old Oaken Bucket. This is the equivalent of a bowl game for both these teams as their seasons will be over by 7:30 on Saturday evening. With it being senior day and a rivalry game, Indiana will come through and outscore the Boilermakers in a high scoring affair in Bloomington. Indiana wins outright, 38-34.

MICHIGAN STATE +3 over Penn State 3:30 ET ABC

I've gone back and forth on this game at least 5 times. It's really a question of which teams shows up to play for Michigan State. Will it be the team that played with Iowa until the final play of the game? Will it be the team that held a fairly explosive Michigan offense to 6 points for 55 minutes of their game? Or, will it be the team that allowed Minnesota to score 42 points? The team that gave up 38 points at Wisconsin? The team that allowed Purdue to score 37 points? The one common factor I see in all these games is that the defense has played much better inside Spartan Stadium.

Penn State has proved themselves to be very good against the teams they should beat and mostly average against tougher competition (see their two losses to Iowa and Ohio State). Their offense is lead by Darryl Clark who was first team All-Big Ten last season and Evan Royster who was a first-team All-Big Ten preseason pick this year. On defense their lead by linebacker Navorro Bowman, the most recent star from Linebacker U.

Call it a gut feeling. Call it intuition. Call it me being a Michigan State homer. MSU wins outright, 34-31.

Record last week: 3-1-1
Overall record: 8-8-1