If Gambling were legal....

So, I got completely crushed last week in my football picks. Crushed like Jared takes down a Subway Sub. The only bright side was my upset pick of Michigan not only failing to cover against Purdue, but Purdue actually winning outright. But, that being said, I still went 2-4 last week and it brings my overall record down to 5-7. I'd like to blame my record on the fact that I picked the games at 11:30 AM last Saturday morning, but looking back on things, I don't think I'd pick anything different now. The only thing I didn't factor in was the resurgence of Illinois as an offensive powerhouse after they destroyed Michigan and then put 35 on Minnesota last week. We'll have to see if the folks in Vegas have taken into into consideration for this week. Minnesota hosts South Dakota State this week and there is no line for this game, so I'll just skip it and say, no way Minnesota loses this game. Without further ado, here are the picks:

Big Ten Games - Home Team in Caps

Indiana +25.5 over #18 PENN STATE 12:00 ET Big Ten Network

Penn State has something to prove. They were pushed around by Ohio State last weekend and really struggled to get anything going in their 24-7 loss. If Darryl Clark and Evan Royster are going to be considered an offensive stars, they need to put up more than 161 yards of total offense between them. Credit the OSU defense for their gameplan, but two players that drew comparisons to Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook last week (yep, a newspaper in Pennsylvania actually made that comparison), you have to show up for what was arguably the biggest game of the season for your team.

This Indiana offense is pretty good. They've managed to put up 33 points against Michigan (granted Michigan is like the campus slut, everyone scores on them), 24 on Iowa, 28 against Northwestern, and 28 against Wisconsin. They even managed 14 against an Ohio State defense than held Penn State to 7 points last week. I'm sure Penn State win this game. They probably even win by 3 touchdowns, but I think they get off to a slow start against the Hoosiers (call it a hangover from last week's loss), but they'll come through in the 2nd quarter and 2nd half and easily roll to victory...but fail to cover. Penn State wins 38-17

#20 WISCONSIN -8.5 over Michigan 12:00 ET Big Ten Network

Michigan's defense is terrible. If Wisconsin fails to score 35 points in this game, it's because their offense turns the ball over multiple (read: 3+ times). John Clay was injured in their game against Indiana last week, but is fully expected to play this week. John Clay and Montee Ball have turned into a great 1-2 punch for the Badgers running game. On top of that, early in the season, Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien proved he has the ability to make plays when he has time to throw the ball. I expect big games from Clay, Ball, Tolzien, and TE Garrett Graham against a weak Michigan defense. Also, something to watch for all Badger fans is the growth of freshman linebacker Chris Borland. Borland was a stand-out on special teams and rushing the QB early in season and his production has only gone up since he's stepped into the Badgers line-up after injuries struck the defense. Look for him to keep an eye on the Michigan QB's this weekend and cause trouble for Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson all day on Saturday.

Speaking of the Michigan defense, it's been written everywhere (including this blog) how terrible it has been this season. The real question on the matter is whether it's a talent issue or a coaching issue. Personally, I think it's a combination of things and you can't blame either side entirely. The bigger question is the Rich Rodriguez experiment. I was going to write an entire blog entry on this subject, but I don't want to come across as a Michigan State fan taking cheap shots at the Michigan football program when they're down. If I have some free time tonight, maybe I'll put something together. That being said, I just don't see the Michigan defense putting a stop to the Wisconsin offense. It's a Wisconsin offense that bases their game on ball control and running the football. They'll keep the Michigan offense on the sidelines and win by at least 10. Wisconsin wins, 38-28.

ILLINOIS -4 over Northwestern 12:00 ET ESPN Classic

I just have no feelings for this game. It's like a guy with a hot sister. He knows she's hot, but she's still his sister and doesn't think of her that way (even when all of his buddies are trying to hit on her). I just don't have any interest in this game. I guess Illinois wins. Their offense seems to be coming around (scored 38 against Michigan and 35 against Minnesota) Northwestern pulled off a major upset beating Iowa last weekend, but I think the injury to Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi was as much a factor in that game as was the play of Northwestern's defense. I also think there could be a letdown factor for the Wildcats this weekend coming off the big victory last weekend. I know I've always said never trust a Ron Zook coached team, but in this case I'll give the points and take the Illini at home in the in-state rivalry game. Illinois wins 27-20.

Michigan State -3 over PURDUE 12:00 ET ESPN

Probably the second biggest Big Ten game of the weekend. 4-6 Purdue is playing to keep their bowl hopes alive. 5-5 MSU is playing to become bowl eligible with a tough game against Penn State awaiting them next weekend. Purdue started the season 1-5, but that 1-5 record included a tough 38-36 loss at Oregon, a close 24-21 loss to Notre Dame. They surprised Ohio State and scored the 2nd biggest upset of the Big Ten season with a 26-18 victory at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette. Since then, it's been a collection of up and down performances for the Boilers. After being destroyed 37-0 by Wisconsin, the Boilers rebounded with a strong second half performance to beat Michigan 38-36 in a game they trailed 24-10 at halftime. QB Joey Elliott has proved to be very solid and RB Ralph Bolden is third in the Big Ten in rushing. Elliott leads the Big Ten in passing yards, is second in touchdowns, but is also second in interceptions. That being said, I still think their offense will have a couple of missteps against a MSU defense who should come out with something to prove and looked much better last week against a much inferior opponent in Western Michigan.

There's no question about the Michigan State offense. They're going to score some points as Blair White and Kirk Cousins will always keep this offense moving. The Spartans are hoping Larry Caper can return this week and continue what has been a decent freshman campaign for the Battle Creek native. One good thing to come out of the Spartans game last week was Ashton Leggett's performance. The seldom used running back who started the season fifth on the depth chart showed his nose for the endzone. Coming into the game Leggett had one carry for zero yards. Against Western Leggett had 14 carries for 110 yards and four touchdowns. While his 71 yard touchdown run was impressive, his ability to punch the ball in near the goaline was more impressive to me. Let's face it, looking at his long touchdown, almost any running back playing division 1 football takes that to the endzone. Western pushed all their defenders up the middle as MSU ran to the outside. Leggett, who is not known for his speed, jumped outside and was gone. There was no one on the field between the left hashmark and the sideline and Leggett has a wide open field in front of him. On the hand, the Spartans have struggled this season to get the ball in the end zone when it's 1st and goal inside the five. The offensive line has struggled to get a solid push and the freshman running backs (Caper and Baker) have struggled to find the endzone. When healthy, Glenn Winston was the guy near the endzone, but since his knee injury Caper and Baker have not been able to match his production. This set-up Leggett for what he did last weekend. At 5'11" and 230 pounds, he's exactly what MSU needs. The knock on Leggett coming into the year was his ability to hang on to the ball, but it appears he's worked on that problem and the coaches trust his ability near the endzone.

The Spartans will give up some points, but win the turnover battle. The defense will keep Bolden under wraps and put pressure on Elliott. Larry Caper will come back healthy and the Spartans will take care of business in West Lafayette this weekend. MSU wins 34-27.

#10 Iowa +17 over #11 OHIO STATE 3:30 ET ABC

I don't get this line. I know Iowa is playing without Ricky Stanzi. I know they're on their fourth string running back after injuries have crushed their running game this year. As bad as freshman QB James Vandenberg looked last week for the Hawkeyes, I expect him to be much better after a full week of practice with the starting unit. Also, this is still the Hawkeye defense that has given teams fits all year long.

That being said, Ohio State looked very good against Penn State last week. Their defense managed to shut down a very good Penn State offense. I still don't trust Terrell Pryor against a good defense. Iowa's strength on defense is their run defense. If they can prevent Pryor from completing the long pass and force him to be accurate throwing the ball short, I think they can keep the Ohio State offense under wraps. Pryor is still not very accurate in the 8-12 yard passing game. He's got a great arm and throws a great deep ball. If he has time to line-up and throw it 40 yards down the field, he'll complete 3/5 which is a great number on deep balls. That being said, he's lucky to complete 3/5 on short out patterns and crossing patterns.

There's no coach in the Big Ten that I trust more than Kirk Ferentz. He's like the anti-Ron Zook. He game plans well and his teams are almost always ready to play. I think he finds a way to keep this close even with all the injuries facing the Hawkeyes. Ohio State wins, but Iowa keeps it close with a couple of big plays from wide receivers Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. OSU wins 24-17.

Record Last week: 2-4
Overall Record: 5-7.