It's common knowledge that one of the reasons sports are so popular is because so many people bet on them. This is especially true with football. Odds are listed everywhere. There are numerous online sites from which you can place a bet (betonus.com, bodog.com, etc). Every casino in Vegas has a sports book where you can bet on anything from football to horse racing to boxing to the Academy Awards.
At lunch today, my co-workers and I were talking about this weekend's Big Ten football games. It reminded me of exactly how the odds makers in Las Vegas set the lines each week. Every week the line is set in hopes that 50% of the money will be bet on one team and 50% on the other. For those of you that don't know, the casino makes money in this situation. To win $100, you have bet $110. If you win, you get your $110 back plus the $100 you won. If you lose, the casino keeps your money. So for example, say there is $5500 bet on Team A this weekend and $5500 bet on team B. The casino collects $11,000 before the game begins. Now say team A wins. People that bet on team A will receive their $5500 back plus the $5000 they won, and the casino will keep the extra $500. So, just by having a betting window open, the casino makes $500 on the game. This is always the casino's goal.
At lunch today, Matt and Karl disagreed on every game. It's a bookie's dream scenario. You get guys to bet 50% one way and 50% another. It got me thinking though. It's been a long time since I've bet on sports. Personally, I like to have some control over any activity in which gambling is taking place. I don't want the outcome controlled by 53 people I don't know personally (as is the case for any NFL football game and the 53 members of the team I bet on). That doesn't even factor in some of the bonehead coaching decisions that have been made over the years that completely ruined great bets I was involved in.
But on that note, I've decided to keep a running total of my thoughts on college and NFL football the rest of the season. For college football, I'll only touch on Big Ten games and games between two teams ranked in the top 25. I'll post those picks on Thursday. For the NFL, I'll pick every game and post those picks on Friday or Saturday. I'll keep a running total at the bottom of every column. So, without further ado, here are this week's college picks.
National - Home Team in Caps
#14 OKLAHOMA STATE +8.5 over #3 Texas - 8:00 ET ABC
In my first upset pick, I believe Oklahoma State will win this game outright. It's a night game, at home, against one of their bigger rivals. It's a game they've been looking forward to all season. Even without their top player Dez Bryant (who is suspended for the rest of the year by the NCAA), OK State finds a way to top the Longhorns and stay in the Big 12 title hunt.
Oklahoma State 31 - Texas 27
#5 USC -3 over #10 OREGON 8:00 ET ABC
Love him or hate him, Pete Carroll does his best coaching in big games. Just like you can always count on USC to blow one game a year against a weaker opponent (At Washington this year, at Oregon State last year), he always has his teams ready to play for the big games. Also, freshman quarterback Matt Barkley is halfway through his freshman year and has experience in tough road football games (at OSU this year), so I don't see him getting rattled by the Oregon fans. Oregon has won 6 in a row since an opening night loss to Boise State that featured the ugly incident with RB LeGarrette Blount punching a Boise State player and then threatening to fight opposing fans as coaches and security had to escort him to the locker room following the game. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly seems to have really turned things around since that game and has his team playing very good football. That being said, they haven't seen a defense like USC all year and their 6 game winning streak comes to an end this week.
USC 30 - Oregon 24
Big Ten - Home team in caps
New Mexico State +44 over #17 OHIO STATE - 12:00 ET Big Ten Network
Ok, here's the deal. New Mexico State is awful. They lost earlier this year to Idaho. They lost by 38 to Louisiana Tech. They'll probably lose by upwards of 35 points to Ohio State. That being said, Ohio State's offense is not what it used to be. Terrell Pryor is still trying to become a quarterback and not just an athlete. As much as I'd like to pick OSU in this game, they haven't scored 44 points in any single game all year. I just don't think their offense has the ability to score that much.
OSU 42 - New Mexico State 7
WISCONSIN -7 over Purdue - 12:00 ET ESPN2
Even though their offense has struggled the the last two weeks (10 points against Iowa and 13 against Ohio State), those games were against two of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten. Purdue, on the other hand, is a better team than their 3-5 record would make you believe. They've won 2 in a row, including a victory over then #7 Ohio State. That being said, this game is being played in Madison and it's a very tough place for opposing teams to play I think Wisconsin jumps out to an early 14 point lead in the first half and hang on to win by 10.
Wisconsin 27 - Purdue 17
#4 IOWA -17 over Indiana - 12:00 ET Big Ten Network
Iowa is 8-0 and coming off a dramatic victory on the last play against Michigan State. Indiana is 4-4 and is coming off a crushing lost to Northwestern in which they held a 28-3 lead in the first half and lost 29-28. Indiana is just not a very good football team. Two of their four wins were narrow victories against Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan by a total of 9 points. Their defense is average at best and their offense will struggle against a very good Hawkeye defense. Iowa is working toward an undefeated season and a match-up in two weeks with Ohio State, but their coaches won't let them overlook the Hoosiers.
Iowa 31- Indiana 6
Michigan -7 over ILLINOIS - 3:30 ET ABC
Illinois is a sinking ship. Ron Zook has no clue who his starting QB is from week to week. One week it's Juice Williams (the career leader in yards from scrimmage at Illinois), the next it's Eddie McGee, and now there's talk of Jacob Charest getting some snaps on Saturday. While this means more for a defense to plan for, there's also less continuity between the QB's and WR's as they don't get as much practice time together each week. There's also talk of Eddie McGee playing some wide receiver again. All and all, Zook is pulling at strings and there's just nothing going right for the Illini. While they always give Michigan a tough game, this year things might be a little different. It pains me to say this, but this game won't even be competitive. The Michigan defense isn't very good, but the Illini offense is worse.
Michigan 38 - Illinois 14
#12 Penn State -14.5 over NORTHWESTERN - 4:30 ET ESPN
All season long, Northwestern has played up or down to the level of their competition. This includes narrow victories over Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), and Indiana. It also includes close losses to Syracuse, Minnesota, and Michigan State. While I think they'll keep things close for a while with Penn State, the overall talent of the Nittany Lions will be too much for the Wildcats to handle on both sides of the ball.
Penn State 34 - Northwestern 17
Michigan State -3.5 over MINNESOTA
In just another example of how Vegas works, this line started the week with MSU as a 7 point favorite. As the week has gone on, that line has slowly moved down. That means more and more money is going on Minnesota and they're trying to even things out. Some will tell you MSU will collapse after the crushing defeat last week. In previous seasons with previous coaches, I would have felt this way too. That being said, this is not the same old Spartans. Coach Dantonio finds a way to get MSU ready to play every week. On top of that, Minnesota lost their biggest offensive weapon this week as Eric Decker (their leading wide receiver the last two years) went down with a season ending injury. I say MSU starts out slow with a little bit of a hangover from last week's game, but by halftime they'll be back on track and will take over in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The defense will come to play and will keep down a Minnesota offense that has struggled of late, scoring just 7 points total in the last two weeks.
MSU 27 - Minnesota 13
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