College Football Picks - Art form or dumb luck? We'll see

It's common knowledge that one of the reasons sports are so popular is because so many people bet on them. This is especially true with football. Odds are listed everywhere. There are numerous online sites from which you can place a bet (betonus.com, bodog.com, etc). Every casino in Vegas has a sports book where you can bet on anything from football to horse racing to boxing to the Academy Awards.

At lunch today, my co-workers and I were talking about this weekend's Big Ten football games. It reminded me of exactly how the odds makers in Las Vegas set the lines each week. Every week the line is set in hopes that 50% of the money will be bet on one team and 50% on the other. For those of you that don't know, the casino makes money in this situation. To win $100, you have bet $110. If you win, you get your $110 back plus the $100 you won. If you lose, the casino keeps your money. So for example, say there is $5500 bet on Team A this weekend and $5500 bet on team B. The casino collects $11,000 before the game begins. Now say team A wins. People that bet on team A will receive their $5500 back plus the $5000 they won, and the casino will keep the extra $500. So, just by having a betting window open, the casino makes $500 on the game. This is always the casino's goal.

At lunch today, Matt and Karl disagreed on every game. It's a bookie's dream scenario. You get guys to bet 50% one way and 50% another. It got me thinking though. It's been a long time since I've bet on sports. Personally, I like to have some control over any activity in which gambling is taking place. I don't want the outcome controlled by 53 people I don't know personally (as is the case for any NFL football game and the 53 members of the team I bet on). That doesn't even factor in some of the bonehead coaching decisions that have been made over the years that completely ruined great bets I was involved in.

But on that note, I've decided to keep a running total of my thoughts on college and NFL football the rest of the season. For college football, I'll only touch on Big Ten games and games between two teams ranked in the top 25. I'll post those picks on Thursday. For the NFL, I'll pick every game and post those picks on Friday or Saturday. I'll keep a running total at the bottom of every column. So, without further ado, here are this week's college picks.

National - Home Team in Caps

#14 OKLAHOMA STATE +8.5 over #3 Texas - 8:00 ET ABC
In my first upset pick, I believe Oklahoma State will win this game outright. It's a night game, at home, against one of their bigger rivals. It's a game they've been looking forward to all season. Even without their top player Dez Bryant (who is suspended for the rest of the year by the NCAA), OK State finds a way to top the Longhorns and stay in the Big 12 title hunt.

Oklahoma State 31 - Texas 27

#5 USC -3 over #10 OREGON 8:00 ET ABC
Love him or hate him, Pete Carroll does his best coaching in big games. Just like you can always count on USC to blow one game a year against a weaker opponent (At Washington this year, at Oregon State last year), he always has his teams ready to play for the big games. Also, freshman quarterback Matt Barkley is halfway through his freshman year and has experience in tough road football games (at OSU this year), so I don't see him getting rattled by the Oregon fans. Oregon has won 6 in a row since an opening night loss to Boise State that featured the ugly incident with RB LeGarrette Blount punching a Boise State player and then threatening to fight opposing fans as coaches and security had to escort him to the locker room following the game. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly seems to have really turned things around since that game and has his team playing very good football. That being said, they haven't seen a defense like USC all year and their 6 game winning streak comes to an end this week.

USC 30 - Oregon 24

Big Ten - Home team in caps

New Mexico State +44 over #17 OHIO STATE - 12:00 ET Big Ten Network
Ok, here's the deal. New Mexico State is awful. They lost earlier this year to Idaho. They lost by 38 to Louisiana Tech. They'll probably lose by upwards of 35 points to Ohio State. That being said, Ohio State's offense is not what it used to be. Terrell Pryor is still trying to become a quarterback and not just an athlete. As much as I'd like to pick OSU in this game, they haven't scored 44 points in any single game all year. I just don't think their offense has the ability to score that much.
OSU 42 - New Mexico State 7

WISCONSIN -7 over Purdue - 12:00 ET ESPN2
Even though their offense has struggled the the last two weeks (10 points against Iowa and 13 against Ohio State), those games were against two of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten. Purdue, on the other hand, is a better team than their 3-5 record would make you believe. They've won 2 in a row, including a victory over then #7 Ohio State. That being said, this game is being played in Madison and it's a very tough place for opposing teams to play I think Wisconsin jumps out to an early 14 point lead in the first half and hang on to win by 10.
Wisconsin 27 - Purdue 17

#4 IOWA -17 over Indiana - 12:00 ET Big Ten Network
Iowa is 8-0 and coming off a dramatic victory on the last play against Michigan State. Indiana is 4-4 and is coming off a crushing lost to Northwestern in which they held a 28-3 lead in the first half and lost 29-28. Indiana is just not a very good football team. Two of their four wins were narrow victories against Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan by a total of 9 points. Their defense is average at best and their offense will struggle against a very good Hawkeye defense. Iowa is working toward an undefeated season and a match-up in two weeks with Ohio State, but their coaches won't let them overlook the Hoosiers.

Iowa 31- Indiana 6

Michigan -7 over ILLINOIS - 3:30 ET ABC

Illinois is a sinking ship. Ron Zook has no clue who his starting QB is from week to week. One week it's Juice Williams (the career leader in yards from scrimmage at Illinois), the next it's Eddie McGee, and now there's talk of Jacob Charest getting some snaps on Saturday. While this means more for a defense to plan for, there's also less continuity between the QB's and WR's as they don't get as much practice time together each week. There's also talk of Eddie McGee playing some wide receiver again. All and all, Zook is pulling at strings and there's just nothing going right for the Illini. While they always give Michigan a tough game, this year things might be a little different. It pains me to say this, but this game won't even be competitive. The Michigan defense isn't very good, but the Illini offense is worse.

Michigan 38 - Illinois 14

#12 Penn State -14.5 over NORTHWESTERN - 4:30 ET ESPN

All season long, Northwestern has played up or down to the level of their competition. This includes narrow victories over Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), and Indiana. It also includes close losses to Syracuse, Minnesota, and Michigan State. While I think they'll keep things close for a while with Penn State, the overall talent of the Nittany Lions will be too much for the Wildcats to handle on both sides of the ball.

Penn State 34 - Northwestern 17

Michigan State -3.5 over MINNESOTA

In just another example of how Vegas works, this line started the week with MSU as a 7 point favorite. As the week has gone on, that line has slowly moved down. That means more and more money is going on Minnesota and they're trying to even things out. Some will tell you MSU will collapse after the crushing defeat last week. In previous seasons with previous coaches, I would have felt this way too. That being said, this is not the same old Spartans. Coach Dantonio finds a way to get MSU ready to play every week. On top of that, Minnesota lost their biggest offensive weapon this week as Eric Decker (their leading wide receiver the last two years) went down with a season ending injury. I say MSU starts out slow with a little bit of a hangover from last week's game, but by halftime they'll be back on track and will take over in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The defense will come to play and will keep down a Minnesota offense that has struggled of late, scoring just 7 points total in the last two weeks.

MSU 27 - Minnesota 13

Fantasy Sports and America's Love of the NFL

On the opening night of the 2009 NFL football season, over 17.5 million people watched the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Tennessee Titans. For NBC's weekly Sunday Night Football broadcast, advertisers pay an average of $339,700 per 30 second commercial. According to ESPN's Colin Cowherd, over 27 million people play fantasy football annually, with many participating in multiple leagues (including myself). Heck, even television network FX this week will debut a half hour sitcom based around guys who are in a fantasy football league. Football has become America's sport.

I now have a reason to cheer for the Miami Dolphins (Ricky Williams), the New Orleans Saints (Pierre Thomas), the Houston Texans (Andre Johnson) and the Indianapolis Colts (Dallas Clark). Growing up in Wisconsin, if you're a sports fan, you're a Packers fan. On Sunday afternoon, you watch the Packers. We went to church every Sunday at 11:15. On the way home, we listened to the radio broadcast because the first quarter had already started. It was just a way of life during football season. I had no reason to really pay much attention to the rest of the NFL. Sure I'd keep an eye on other teams in the NFC Central (now minus Tampa and called the NFC North), but I really didn't care what else was going on in the NFL until the playoffs rolled around. Now with Fantasy Football, I almost always have someone to cheer for or against in every NFL game each week.

It creates an interesting dynamic. Two weeks ago, in my bigger fantasy football league, I was playing against a team that included Greg Jennings of the Packers. I still love the Packers. It's one major alliance I haven't lost since moving to Michigan. Even if the Lions were a good team, I'd still maintain my allegiance to the Packers. So, two weeks ago I settled in Sunday afternoon to cheer for the Packers. Then, as Greg Jennings was running free after catching a pass, I found myself cheering for the other team. I was cheering against my Packers. I wanted them to win, but I needed them to do it without the help of their star wide receiver. Was I really cheering against the Packers??

What as a guy to do? Cheer for his favorite team or cheer for his fantasy football team? Then I remembered watching Brett Favre and Reggie White in Super Bowl XXXI. I remember Favre hitting Andre Rison for a long touchdown pass early in the first quarter. I remember each of Reggie White's three sacks of New England QB Drew Bledsoe. I remember Desmond Howard's MVP performance that included a 99 yard kick return for a touchdown. I was 15 years old and I could still to this day tell you the 22 starters for the Packers and their kicker and punter that day. At that point I realized, my fantasy football team could go 0-14 this year, and I'd be the happiest man in the world if the Packers were to win the Super Bowl (or even just make it to the Super Bowl). My love of the fantasy football will never outshine my love of the Packers.

The Trouble With Being a Sports Fan

There comes a point in a sports fan's life where you have to take a step back and consider the following: Are sports part of your life or do sports run your life? I would argue they're a large part of my life. My fiance would tell you they run my life. I'm not really sure who is right on this one.

I started to ponder this last night as I looked forward to this coming weekend. Saturday is Halloween. The Michigan State football team plays at Minnesota at 8 PM. My fiance and I have been invited to a Halloween party that is taking place at the same time. Normally, I'm all for Halloween parties. People getting dressed up, drinking a little too much, and having an all-around good time. Before we had a chance to discuss it (one friend invited her and another invited me while we were separated at our tailgate this past weekend), "we" had agreed to go to the party.

When I was invited to this party, my first thought was of course: THE GAME! How can I miss such an important game? MSU's remaining games, in order, are at Minnesota, home against Western Michigan, at Purdue, and home against Penn State. Three or four wins in those four games means a bowl game in a warm place in late December or early January. Two wins most likely means a trip to the MotorCity Bowl in Detroit (Good for the city, not exactly the best tourist destination for Spartan Fans). To me, the Minnesota and Purdue games will make or break this season. I expect a win against Western. I'm not so positive about the Penn State game. Win at Minnesota and Purdue and off to warm weather we go. So obviously, the Minnesota game is huge.

Ok, so that brings up the obvious solution. Go the party and hope the game is on TV. Seems like a nice solution to the puzzle. The first problem is, I don't really know the people throwing the party. Are they sports fans? Are they MSU fans? Will they understand how important this game is to guys like me? The other problem (and bigger general problem) is that I really hate watching important football games with large groups of people. Any more than 6 and I feel like I'm missing something. People talk over the announcers. People walk in front of the TV. If anyone gets hurt, I have almost no chance of finding out if he'll come back or if he's out for the game. When the game on TV is something I don't care about (i.e. the Super Bowl most years), this stuff doesn't bother me. I could watch the Super Bowl with 50 people and have a great time. You know why? Normally I have a team I'm cheering for, but I really don't care that much about the outcome. Last year I found myself always cheering for whoever was losing, because I wanted to see an exciting game (and that's exactly what we had between Arizona and Pittsburgh) But, this is different. This is Michigan State. This is my Spartans.

So, after racking my brain, I've come to this conclusion. There is one Halloween every year. There are (at least) twelve Spartan football games every year. To the party I go (now I need a costume). I'll hope it's on TV and I can make the most of it. If not, I might just try to not hear anything about the game all night and watch my recording of it when I get home. (That option never works well. Someone will be following their game on their phone and want to tell me updates. Someone will watch the game then come to the party and want to tell me all about it) In the long run, I'll have fun at the party. More important, my future wife will have fun at the party.

Agony in defeat

I wasn't even going to write about this. It was too much to relive. Then I realized, I can't label my blog MichiganStateDoug without talking about Michigan State sports, even if it was a disaster.

Some would call it a disaster. Some would call it bad coaching. Some would call it a defensive mistake. I think Bill Simmons (AKA ESPN's The Sports Guy) would say it best. In his levels of losing, the third worst loss is "The Stomach Punch." As described by Simmons, "Now we've moved into rarefied territory, any roller-coaster game that ends with (A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play or (B) one of your guys failing in the clutch. ... Usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all. ... Always haunting, sometimes scarring." (Levels of Losing 2.0)

With 1:37 left in the 4th quarter on Saturday, MSU scored on a 30 yard touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins to Blair White. It's the first touchdown by either team in the game and MSU leads 13-9. This play doesn't happen without an amazing play call and execution on a hook-and-ladder play 2 plays earlier. On third and 18, MSU ran one of the best plays in MSU football history as Cousins hit TE Brian Linthicum on the hash mark about 10 yards out. Almost immediately after catching the ball, Linthicum pitched it to a crossing Blair White who scampered down the sideline for 27 more yards to set-up Cousins scoring pass to White two plays later.

It should have been over. Iowa's QB Ricky Stanzi had been 7-18 in the first 58 minutes of the game. MSU's defense had given up some rushing yards, but had kept the Iowa passing game under control. With 1:37 left, they'd have to pass the ball to win. For all intents and purposes, the game should have been over. Then the MSU defensive coordinator took over.

For the first 58 minutes of the game, MSU had rushed at least 4 guys after Stanzi on every play. While MSU only had 2 sacks Saturday, they constantly had pressure on Stanzi and forced him to either throw the ball early or throw the ball away. When Iowa took over on their own 30 yard line with 1:32 left, MSU came out with only 3 down lineman rushing Stanzi. It was then that I started to cringe. Part of me felt it coming. On the first play Stanzi completes a pass for 16 yards while having all the time in the world to throw. 3 plays later he hits another wide receiver for 21 yards as he had all the time he needed to pass as MSU rushed 3 and dropped 8 in coverage. 2 plays later, Stanzi hits the same guy for another 16 yards.

In the first 58:28 Stanzi had 78 yards passing. In the last 1:32 Stanzi ends up with 60 yards passing. 53 come with MSU rushing only three down lineman and never blitzing. With first and goal at the 7 yard line, 15 seconds left in the game, MSU finally starts blitzing and sending more guys after the QB and Stanzi threw 3 straight incomplete passes.

4th down, :02 on the clock, Iowa ball at the 7. MSU decides this is a good time to send the house at Stanzi, leaving 3 corners on islands against the Iowa WR's. Marvin McNutt makes a stutter step move, cuts inside on Chris L. Rucker, and Iowa wins the game 15-13. I felt like someone had punched me in the stomach. I think this is the first game I've attended in person where I've had this feeling. I don't think I've ever been punched in the stomach, but I can imagine this is what it feels like. Top off the night with a disaster of a ride home (bad accident on the only major highway back to Detroit, went 6 miles in 2 hours with no exit/turn-around to make a U-turn in) and it was pretty much one of the worst nights to be an MSU fan.

People will blame the officials for a bad call on a big hit by Jeremy Ware with 7 minutes left in the game. People will blame the officials for the holding call on Chris L. Rucker with 15 seconds left in the game (contact happened in the first 3 yards, otherwise I'm sure it's called pass interference instead of holding as Rucker basically knocked the guy to the ground). What it really comes down to is, MSU played it safe on defense from the 1:32 mark in 4th quarter until the last 0:15. Then with Iowa working with limited space, they decide to blitz and open up more space for them to work with. 2 linebackers standing on the hash marks near the goal-line takes away the slant pass. They could still have rushed 6 and dropped 5. As it turns out, rushing 8 still let Stanzi make a play and Iowa's magic run continues.

All wasn't lost for MSU fans on Saturday night though. The resurgent MSU hockey team defeated then number 1 in the country Miami (OH) down in Oxford....oh who am I kidding, how many people actually follow college hockey anyways...

Miss my uncle, bring on the Hawkeyes

When I was in college, I used to write all the time. Call it a journal. Call it random thoughts. Call it what you want, but sometimes I just felt like writing. Now that I'm in the working world, I find a don't have time to write very often. I'm going to try and change that. I don't know who will read this or how often I'll post an entry, but I think it's about time that I start writing again.

This week Michigan State takes on Iowa in a match-up pairing two of the hottest teams in Big Ten Football. Iowa hasn't lost since November 1, 2008. They've won 11 in a row and are looking to make it 12 at Spartan Stadium this Saturday evening. Michigan State has won 3 in a row and is in the process of turning around their season that got off to an unexpectedly slow start with three losses in a row after opening with a drubbing of Montanta Sate to start the season.

I can't attend an Iowa football game without thinking about my Uncle Jerry. My Dad and his family grew up in the small town of Clinton, Iowa. Jerry was the biggest Hawkeye fan I've ever met. He raised his kids to be Hawkeye fans. One of his sons went to Iowa State and I wasn't sure Jerry would still consider him part of the family any more. Jerry lived and died with Iowa football on fall Saturdays.

Growing up in Wisconsin, there wasn't an Iowa-Wisconsin football game that didn't include a family gathering of Iowa Petersens and Wisconsin Petersens. Uncle Jerry and Aunt Rita would put the four kids in the car and drive the two hours up to Madison every other year. In opposite years, Mom and Dad would put my brother and I in the backseat and drive down to Iowa City. Uncle Jerry always made sure I had some sort of Iowa paraphernalia for these games. One year it was an Iowa shirt. The next it was a Hawkeye football. He'd do everything he could to get me to say, "Go Hawks!" but I couldn't drop my love of the Wisconsin Badgers. After spending 5 years at Michigan State University, the Spartans are my team, but those of you that know me well know that I still have a love for the Badgers deep inside.

For the first 10 years of my life, Iowa and head coach Hayden Fry were by far the better team in that match-up. Wisconsin was stuck in a downward spiral with coaches who couldn't seem to get the team more than 3-4 wins per year. Then Barry Alvarez (a former Hayden Fry assistant) became the Wisconsin head coach and things really turned around for the Badgers. The games with Iowa became more and more competitive and Wisconsin got the best of the Hawkeyes in the 90's.

When I was in high school, my Uncle Jerry died. I still remember my Dad coming into my bedroom early in the morning. It was strange because Dad was almost always at work long before I woke up for school. He sat down on the edge of my bed and I could tell something was wrong. He told me his brother had suffered what was believed to be a brain aneurysm and was in the hospital. They really didn't think he was going to make it. Two days later, Jerry passed away after all of his kids had been able to travel to Cherokee, Iowa (a small town in the far Northwest corner of Iowa) to see him one last time. We drove through a massive snow storm to be there for the funeral and it was more of a celebration of his life than anything else.

Uncle Jerry would have been 71 this year. When the Hawkeyes take the field in East Lansing this weekend, in my head I'll hear him yelling, "Go Hawks!" and I know he'll be watching from above.